AUTOMATION – The Search for Productivity and Jobs of the future

 

Imagine a world where you have more time for leisure because someone else is doing it for you. Hang on a second... Does that sound right? Are we talking about modern day slavery where we are not slaves to work but rather using some new more productive slaves? I am talking about automation and the future of work. In our search for greater productivity, we are increasingly reliant on automation to do repetitive jobs, using artificial intelligence to do mind boggling analysis of data and enable uses of technology that don’t require human beings.

We are heading back to where it all started. 150 years of industrial revolution transformed cottage industries and agriculture based economies. We are reaching that stage in the developed world where there will be increased peer to peer trading and exchange of goods and services rather than mass employment to produce goods and services. Now is that a good thing or a bad thing?

I have had a few discussions with my friends and contemporaries on this subject. I have always maintained that when all economies of the world are equal or on a level footing then free trade will truly happen because you will exchange good and services rather than a lopsided business transaction. Right now balance of trade is severely imbalanced for all countries in favour of Chinese manufacturing.

Spare a thought for the Danes, Swedes and Swiss. The smaller economies who produce high quality goods that are exported to other countries. Their own markets are small with populations of 2-5 million people. They cannot possibly consume all that they produce but on the other hand they don't make underwear either which they have to import from low cost countries. 

Movement of labour and free trade is complicated. India and China did benefit in last 20 years with the investments coming in from USA and Europe but these Western economies are now suffering because those jobs could have been theirs.

In global manufacturing organizations it’s a constant challenge to balance market demand through designated factories or market allocation strategies. Some factories are not happy because they want the business but they cannot have it because they are too expensive!

A friend of mine countered stating that this was basically arguing in favour of a constraint. Lack of free trade is why economies don't become equal. Why be more productive or competitive when you can artificially create competitiveness by tariffs. It is always survival of the fittest. Free trade forces you to compete with the best in everything. Either we make everyone better or become weaker as a species.

To which I countered “Yes but what do you do with the hungry millions? Or is the best way forward to abolish the concept of money, stock returns, etc.? If there are no such economic pressures can a barter system work that will benefit mankind and society. It's a utopian view I realize but also the free trade view poses its own set of challenges. Theoretically, “survival of the fittest” may sound fine. But when the survival of a human being depends on eating, paying rent or mortgage, education and healthcare, then the argument becomes hard to swallow.

On the other hand one may view the argument as not being theoretical at all. We have created a construct that encourages laziness and mediocrity. If we go back to hunting days then one pretty much dies if one can't hunt. Now we have the option to not hunt all the time but everyone has to hunt. If someone wants to avoid hunting altogether and live off others then it is a problem.

There is soundness in this argument but when human beings were just hunter gatherers the human population on earth was 1% or less of what it is today. The scale of the problem is amplified by the population explosion which has occurred over the last century. This has created a drain on planetary resources.

Truly! Human beings are to blame for the situation we find ourselves in. Another friend chipped in. After all, we eschew paying for traditional newspaper format, instead wanting curated online newspapers, wanting to shop at midnight, rather than meet fellow human beings at stores. We are essentially killing the ecosystem for our children. As he put it “Technology - a method to progress and make it easy for humanity to become Lemmings.”

Another friend who is an academic at Purdue and now a Jefferson fellow working in Washington to help the US administration with its social policies. One of his areas of research is “Design for Human Instinct”. He argues that it will probably be an innovation economy with “innovators” being localized monopolies. We are seeing some trend towards this already.

With the rapid up take of automation you sometimes wonder whether it's innovation of the bored mind. Innovation for the sake of innovation just to find an outlet for creativity is fine but is it really fine when it disrupts the ecosystem we all live in? The taxi drivers who are losing jobs Uber and the irony being that Uber drivers will themselves be out of jobs as Uber moves to driverless cars! Or the radiographers losing jobs to IBM Watson who can do the job of analysing scans, x-rays, etc. to come up with accurate diagnosis. Even Goldman Sachs has replaced a major chunk of its workforce, the highly paid traders, with software algorithms that do stock and commodity trading on exchanges. One has to question whether the pursuit of productivity is simply the pursuit of profits.

 

Industrial powerhouses in the United States and Europe have hitched their wagon to the Industrial Internet of Things (IoT) and Industrial robots citing that automation, connectivity and higher productivity will drive the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Industrial IoT is running on the backbone of work that software vendors, network operators and telecom firms are doing which is great. The sensor in a farm tractor informing the manufacturer that the axle is going to fail at some point in time so be ready to intervene. But this sensor is also the weakest link because it exposes you to security vulnerabilities.

 

As an example, when you get an integrated national electricity grid in the USA it's very easy to bring it down. Ukraine had a massive blackout where Russian hackers switched off 110 circuit breakers in the nation's network and 6 months down the line it's not fully restored. All automated networks have security vulnerabilities. Cybersecurity is the most pressing challenge facing governments and corporations. Such vulnerabilities are created because of the high level of automation and the desire for ever increasing use of technology in our everyday lives to turn on home heating systems, washing machines, coffee makers, etc. remotely from the comfort of our smart phones.

 

Does it not create an unhealthier living lifestyle by discouraging us to get up and do normal and routine chores which we were or are still used to doing? Then in order to get and stay healthy we spend on expensive gym memberships to get fit. This is the start of a downward spiral. The pursuit of growth touches all aspects of our lives: jobs, health and well-being, lifestyles, social welfare and plenty others.

 If we commit to act with good intentions and concern ourselves with the welfare of ourselves, family, friends and general humanity then we are not competing to outdo one another. We are instead growing together. It's not a communist or socialist principle but just the principle of equality. All men are created equal. So why not strive to ensure this equality and pursue social and technological development holistically that ensures a sustainable future for mankind.

It's been a while....

It's been 4 years since I posted on this blog. But I have been thinking about it for some time now. So call it procrastination or simple writer's block the end result is that I have nothing to show for the past 4 years on this blog. Maybe I got too busy with my new role starting in the summer of 2009 but I haven't stopped thinking about it. My reasons for writing are to keep my skills sharpened and also provide an outlet for my thoughts, learnings, insights gained from people etc.

I finally decided to pen something down when my wife shared a very interesting blog from Harvard Business Review called "Manage your energy not your time" (http://hbr.org/2007/10/manage-your-energy-not-your-time). I found it incredibly useful as I have always wondered about how to manage my stress levels when the work day gets incredibly busy. I am sure it happens to all of us when we have long days at work and we come back home completely shattered with no energy to connect with our loved ones.

The insights provided in the article refer to taking timeouts every 2 hours when working. Some people find taking 20 minute walks in the morning and afternoons during the work day as an opportunity to clear their heads and allowing them to come back to their desks relaxed and refreshed. In some cases people smoke cigarettes under stressful situations but found a way to cut down by using deep breathing techniques. I am an early morning person and find that by 3:00pm in the afternoon my energy levels are dropping and I feel sleepy. I usually rely on a cup of coffee to reinvigorate me but an hour later I am really hungry.

I have found that by introducing a mid-morning and mid-afternoon snack in my routine coupled with taking breaks from my desk I am now able to sustain my energy levels throughout the day and also engage positively with people and with tasks. I am not starving when I get home and that means I eat properly rather than like a glutton. I am able to interact with my kids and wife positively and have a proper discussion around the dinner table about our respective days.

But all this wouldn't be possible if I didn't have a good night's rest which for me is between 7-8 hours. To quote Tim Sanders, "Don't load up on info-carbs like your email Inbox, social media and TV news.  Instead, spend a 1/2 hour or so reading out of a book that expands your mind, makes you better at your job or gives you a glimpse into the future."

Decision Making Under Duress

A friend of mine shared this with me. I felt it was extremely thought provoking and wanted it to have a wider audience. Every second of our lives we are making decisions without pondering for a while… read this…

A group of children were playing near two railway tracks, one still in use while the other disused. Only one child played on the disused track, the rest on the operational track.

The train is coming, and you are just beside the track interchange. You can make the train change its course to the disused track and save most of the kids. However, that would also mean the lone child playing by the disused track would be sacrificed. Or would you rather let the train go its way?

Let's take a pause to think what kind of decision we could make................



Most people might choose to divert the course of the train, and sacrifice only one child. You might think the same way, I guess. Exactly, everyone thinks the same way initially because to save most of the children at the expense of only one child was rational decision most people would make, morally and emotionally. But, have you ever thought that the child choosing to play on the disused track had in fact made the right decision to play at a safe place?

Nevertheless, he had to be sacrificed because of his ignorant friends who chose to play where the danger was. This kind of dilemma happens around us everyday. In the office, community, in politics and especially in a democratic society, the minority is often sacrificed for the interest of the majority , no matter how foolish or ignorant the majority are , and how farsighted and knowledgeable the minority are. The child who chose not to play with the rest on the operational track was sidelined. And in the case he was sacrificed, no one would shed a tear for him.

The great critic Leo Velski Julian who told the story said he would not try to change the course of the train because he believed that the kids playing on the operational track should have known very well that track was still in use, and that they should have run away if they heard the train's sirens. If the train was diverted, that lone child would definitely die because he never thought the train could come over to that track! Moreover, that track was not in use probably because it was not safe. If the train was diverted to the track, we could put the lives of all passengers on board at stake! And in your attempt to save a few kids by sacrificing one child, you might end up sacrificing hundreds of people to save these few kids.

While we are all aware that life is full of tough decisions that need to be made, we may not realize that hasty decisions may not always be the right one .

"Remember that what's right isn't always popular ... and what's popular isn't always right ."

Everybody makes mistakes; that's why they put erasers on pencils

Issues to ponder - chasing money or enrichment?

We all need to de-clutter and focus on the things that matter. We are all chasing wealth and economic growth. But at what cost? The world's economy has to be 15 times its current size before all the poor nations can be as rich as the OECD nations. It will require a change in mindset. What is the point in chasing faster microchips when a vast number of people don't have access to water supply?

Shouldn't business objectives be directed towards more sustainable growth. Sustainable in the sense where people continue to have jobs and growth in other parameters counts as well? Personal development, better relations with family, friends, participation in the community, etc.

If we stop and think about where we are in our lives today, maybe we have achieved quite a few of our goals. Its a case of recognizing it and redirecting our energies to something more meaningful than the simple pursuit of money! India is also going down the route of disaster by trying to ape the West. Of course we need economic growth, but it should also be tempered by our values and traditions - we have ancient history to back it up too - simplicity in life! While the world looks at Hinduism and Buddhist teachings to help them make sense of their ordinary lives, young Indian professionals are turning their backs on these teachings and chasing the glitz and glamour of the West. If this current recession is not a wake up call then what is?

These days I am struggling to come up with answers. Talking philosophy and metaphysics is fine (which I have done above) but what are the small or big steps/actions that we should be taking to actually improve ourselves and actually make a difference in the way we work, interact with friends and family and most importantly, with the community?

All feedback and discussion welcome...

Prosperity without Growth

This is a very relevant discussion in current times and for the future. Professor Tim Jackson, Economics Commissioner at Sustainable Development Commission provides some deep reflective insights on how to achieve a sustainable economy. I hope you enjoy reading it. You may need to fix a drink, kick off your slippers, put on your thinking caps and settle down with your laptop or computer to read it.

Click here to visit the website and download the report.. http://www.sd-commission.org.uk/publications.php?id=914